Big plays and turnovers; that’s how games are won in the NFL. Are we incorporating these two separate ideas properly into how we see a teams’ success? There are formulas that try to marry the two together, but they speak of turnovers in the traditional sense by using only fumbles and interceptions.
Is there a better way? I recently asked Twitter this very question in a thread of polls.
To my delight, the consensus agreed that the old method of tallying only interceptions and lost fumbles didn’t tell the whole story. That gave me the motivation needed to create a new formula to broaden the scope while zeroing in on stronger win correlations.