How Much Regression Should we Expect from Zach Ertz in 2019?

After one of the greatest tight end seasons in NFL history, what does Zach Ertz do for an encore?

Zach Ertz had a truly historic season in 2018. By the end of his 16 games, he was the all-time leader among tight ends in targets (156) and receptions (116) for a single season. Those numbers paved the way for 1,163 yards and eight touchdowns, good enough for second best at his position in PPR formats. What will he do for an encore? The question when a player completes a GOAT-like outlier season is not will they regress, but rather how much should we expect them to regress.

On August 13, Zack Rosenblatt, the Eagles beat writer for NJ.com, wrote that Ertz’s targets “will likely go down” due to…