Last week, Jimmy Kempski carefully tip-toed his way along a short tree limb and said the Philadelphia Eagles have a 50% chance of drafting Marcus Mariota.Jimmy has his reasons, and they’re good ones, but I’m just not sure how many coins he flipped to reach that conclusion.
There are too many known and unknown factors at work.To illustrate, Brian Burke’s Bayesian Draft Analysis Tool gives Mariota less than a .2% chance of being available at pick 20.That’s two times in 1,000.It’s not astronomically high in the grand scheme of things, but not entirely comforting either.