The Shape of Player Performances

Joel Embiid is currently averaging about 27 points per game so far this season. In a fantasy land, that could mean that he alternates games of 54 points and 0 points, or games of 26 points and 28 points. In reality though, we know that Joel’s scoring distribution is far smoother. You can see what it looks like exactly in Figure 1, presented as two different density functions.

JJ Redick is averaging 17.6 points per game, and let’s see what his distribution looks like in Figure 2.