Midweek Musings - Defense as a Predictor

Penn State took care of business against SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoffs, and now heads west to play Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

The Broncos’ offense flows through their Heisman runner-up running back, Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos have amassed a total of 6,112 yards of offense so far in the 2024 season - Jeanty has accounted for 43% of that offense (2,497 rush yards, 116 receiving yards).

It should come as no surprise, then, that the key to beating Boise State is to try to neutralize Jeanty as much as possible. Given his lack of production through the air (just 116 of his total production came via receptions in 13 games), this effectively means…