ESPN doesn't expect SGA to go back-to-back as MVP—or finish in the Top 2 in voting.
Despite producing one of the greatest individual seasons in NBA history, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't expected to be a favorite for MVP in 2025-26. It's the projection that ESPN put forth with results that revealed a decline in projected votes that would realistically put him on the outside looking in.
GIlgeous-Alexander would still be third in MVP voting based on ESPN's projection, but history shows that three-player races are rarely an actuality.