What do the analytics say needs to happen for Wisconsin to get the upset?

We’re finally at the Wisconsin game — Ohio State’s first opponent that is capable of challenging the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball.

Cincinnati, Michigan State, and Northwestern all were strong defensively, but didn’t have the offense to keep pace. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is second in defensive SP+ and 22nd in offensive SP+. As you can see from the expected points added (EPA) data below, the Badgers are in kind of a unique tier of teams:

Going by offensive and defensive EPA, the Badgers are in the top tier of teams with Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, and Oklahoma, but are pretty much the inverse of the Sooners by emphasizing their defense.