The analytics suggest Ohio State should win soundly, but I wouldn’t feel overconfident

James Lang-USA TODAY SportsAs we noted earlier this week, Ohio State really has to win this game against Penn State to have a good chance of making the playoff.

While there’s a chance that 538’s playoff model (that is used in the linked article) might overweight the value of a conference championship, it is still highly unlikely that the Buckeyes make the playoff and achieve their season’s goals if Penn State gets the upset.

Ohio State is currently favored by 19 and most advanced stats favor the Buckeyes by multiple scores (SP+ likes Ohio State by 15 points, with an 80% win probability). But given Penn State’s high talent level and performance this year, an upset is still well within the…