Every winter, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs posts his annual ZiPS projections for the following season. The Oakland A’s edition was released this week.
Before we jump into the numbers, a few caveats. First, these are projections, not predictions. That means they are based on nothing but raw data, like past performance and aging curves and injury data. You might well have a real-life reason why you think a player will outperform (or underperform) these numbers, like a pitcher whom you know added a new pitch over the offseason that hasn’t shown up in games yet, or an aging hitter who looks completely finished no matter what his past stats say about maybe bouncing back, etc.