This is a contradiction for me but sometimes I read something and my reaction is, “I wish I only had my own idiot gut to decide how I feel about this season.” There’s a lot to parse this time of year, and it’s complicated enough without bringing objective data into the dominant emotional interpretation of what is certainly bound to happen.
Recently I found the most optimistic, theoretically scientific breakdown of State’s 2017 season on 247Sports.com, which was written by Christian Corona. His game-by-game win probability projections are way more encouraging than those from either FPI or Bill Connelly.