Statistical guru Evan Miya ran 10,000 simulations heading into the 2025-26 Men’s Basketball season, and determined the Ceiling finish, the Floor finish and the Median finish for each team.
To present this data on a national level, I’m breaking it down by conference and presenting the median (most likely), ceiling (95th percentile), and floor (5th percentile) outcomes for each team. This means there is a 90% chance a given team will have a national ranking within their ceiling and floor outcomes at the end of the year.
(EvanMiya)
According to his simulations, NC State’s Median finish is 34th, Ceiling finish is 9th and their Floor finish is 81st.