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Why Successful Run Plays Work

Guest column by Caio Brighenti

"Running backs don't matter." If you've read any analytics article about running in the NFL, odds are you've heard that phrase. But, if you watched the 2020 playoffs, then you saw firsthand how Derrick Henry against the Patriots and Raheem Mostert against the Packers proved that a quality run offense can win big games. So, what makes for a good run game?

I explored this question in my submission for this year's NFL Big Data Bowl student subcompetition. Instead of tackling the strategic question of whether it's worth it to run at all, I decided to investigate what separates runs that work from those that don't.