2022 Cost-Benefit Analysis: Christian Kirk Breaks Wideouts

NFL Offseason - Did Christian Kirk break the NFL?

Kirk was an intriguing prospect when free agency began. His 2021 season saw him set career highs with a 23.2% DVOA and 286 DYAR, not to mention 77 receptions and 982 receiving yards. It was his first above-average season, but he'll be just 26 in 2022. Experts were projecting him to get somewhere around $10 million a year in free agency, which would place him at about the 25th-highest paid receiver in football. A bargain for a team willing to gamble that 2021 wasn't a fluke season, but rather the first step in his development.

Then the Jaguars backed up the Brinks truck on the first day of free agency, the first salvo in what became one of the…