Walk-offs Above Replacement: How we think about value

By virtually all metrics, Aaron Judge is the frontrunner for the American League MVP as we approach the halfway mark of the season. He’s the best player on the best team, in the top five in pretty much every offensive stat, and of course is making a real run at 60 home runs. He also has three walk-off hits, game-ending moments that help drive a narrative that this guy is the one you want at the plate, above all others, when you really need a big hit.

The fact that two of those game-winning hits came against the Astros, the likely biggest rival for the AL pennant, only goes to further that narrative, and got me thinking about narratives as a whole. What’s the intrinsic value to a walk-off? A…