Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote that a Black Swan is an event that has the attributes of “rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.” The Yankees drafted a Black Swan in 2013 when they selected Aaron Judge with pick number 32 in the first round. At 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds, Judge was a physical outlier who came with the typical concerns for players that big.
Following a mesmerizing 2022 season that ranks among the greatest offensive performances in baseball history, it would be easy for someone to look back and wonder how in the world Judge wouldn’t have been the first overall pick in his draft year.