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projections for the 2020 season

Last week Baseball Prospectus released its . Their projections are known as PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimal Test Algorithm and was developed by Nate Silver in 2003.

PECOTA is interesting because BP uses a few different stats than sites like FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference use. For example, their version of WAR is called WARP, and their encompassing offensive stat is DRC+ which stands for deserved runs created and relies on expected contribution rather than averaging past contribution. Think of it as using xFIP instead of FIP. For projecting a player, it makes sense to use a stat based on expected outcome sine we are projecting the future.