NFL draft evaluation is one of the most difficult jobs for a sports front office.
Evaluating a quarterback?
The most difficult by far.
Consider that from 2011-20, 32 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. Of those, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, (maybe?) Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert are the only ones that have become true franchise quarterbacks for the teams that drafted them; a 31% success rate on the most important position to get right. Jared Goff and Ryan Tannehill have found a measure of success with clear limitations, and the jury is still out on Daniel Jones.