When looking at an NFL team’s schedule prior to the start of the season, people love picking out the “easy games” and “hard games” based on what happened in the past. But doing this ignores the fact that things change drastically in the NFL every year. Some of the perceived easy games will be difficult, and some of the perceived hard games will be easy. It’s foolhardy to assume we know how difficult each game will be.
The main reason for this is the natural turnover that occurs across the league each season. For instance, in 2022, the league-average difference in a team’s win total compared to 2021 was 3.