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What Dave Gettleman is missing in his NFL stats analysis

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Dave Gettleman

Giants’ general manager Dave Gettleman made headlines last week discussing the role of the running game in the NFL.

He said, “People say it’s a passing league, I get that … [but] the top four passing teams were not in the playoffs, the top four rushing teams were in the playoffs.”

There was immediate outcry in analytics circles about the clear oversimplification.

— First, stat handicappers know that offenses with a lead often pad their rushing stats grinding out the clock, while those falling behind have to emphasize the pass to catch up quickly.