Player prop “unders” hit 55% of the time between the 2017-2019 regular seasons. And after a hot start for the “overs” to open the 2020 NFL season, Week 6 continued the slight move toward the unders. The percentage of props hitting the under has now increased to 53.4% on the year.
We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down slightly based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed.