We should take two lessons from last season's trade deadline, which started quietly before descending into madness over those frantic final 45 minutes.
The strange brew of shorter contracts and an unprecedented cap spike brings real incentives to stand pat -- "Why trade for this dude when he's about to hit free agency and we have cap space?" -- but also creates harder-to-spot variables that push teams toward action.
Never underestimate what unhappy, desperate teams might talk themselves into during the frenzy. There are only four teams with a realistic chance to win the title -- something that should dull the market -- but there is also a lot of angst around the league.