The concept of expected goals is a strong one. Based on historical data and primarily driven by a shot’s location and type, an expected goals model determines the value of any given shot with respect to how many goals it is worth. It is not an exact value or a truism; it is a model. Among other things, it does provide at least an idea of whether a player is doing the right things regardless of whether the shot is going in the net. Moreso than shooting percentage.
Back in December, I looked at how the New Jersey Devils were producing with respect to the expected goals model calculated by Sean Tierney.