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Patriots need their best game in Round 3, but the trends do not favor them

Welcome to Season 10, Episode 18 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup.

And so we have the rubber match, the winner-takes-it-all, loser-takes-the-fall third meeting between the AFC East champion Bills and the Patriots, who enter the playoffs as a wild card for the first time since the 1998 season.

The Patriots won the first matchup, a masterful 14-10 victory in Week 13 at Buffalo in which they ran the ball 46 times on 49 offensive plays in a windstorm. The Bills gained their measure of sweet revenge three weeks later, winning, 33-21, in Foxborough behind a tour de force performance from quarterback Josh Allen.