It takes a lot for a sportsbook to move an NFL team’s win total.
There aren’t many games in an NFL season, so switching a team from 9.5 to 10.5 sets up the dreaded middle, when a team lands on 10 wins and the book loses on over 9.5 and under 10.5. That’s not good for business.
NFL lines are generally sharp too, knowing that’s where the most action comes in. So when an NFL team has a win total move, it’s generally due to something big, like an unexpected season-ending injury, a sudden retirement or a big signing or trade.