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The biggest analytical what-ifs heading into college football's Week 4

What if ... we win out? Win our conference championship? Lose only a nonconference game? Do we get in?

Fans start running the scenarios as soon as the college football season kicks off, and the game changes every week as the landscape shifts. What would happen to your favorite contender as a two-loss conference champion? The Allstate Playoff Predictor scenario tool is here to answer that question.

To create the tool we simulated the rest of the college football season 200,000 times. When you select a certain scenario -- say, Clemson losing to NC State this week but winning out after that, including the ACC championship -- we filter down to only simulations that include that scenario.