The Group of Five’s entry into one of the New Year’s Six bowls is really a matter of compromise by the playoff selection committee, and sometimes even an afterthought until that game is actually played.
Since no team has really gotten serious discussion in the four years of the playoff, the likelihood of an outsider earning a top-four spot is a moot point until expansion becomes a more realistic option.
For the more than 60 teams battling for one spot in the New Year's Six, just making it through the season can be an arduous task, as just one loss to a fellow Group of Five school can crater a team's chances.