The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release their first rankings of the 2015 college football season on Tuesday, giving teams at the top of the polls the first look at where their playoff hopes stand.
However, these rankings are a little bit different than what we see from the AP and Coaches Poll - the committee ranks teams based on their resumes on that day, not everything overall. For example, Baylor is ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll, but because they've had an extremely weak schedule to this point, they might find themselves outside the top four in the committee's rankings, though they'd still jump up if they manage to beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU down the stretch.
Without further ado, here's what we think the initial CFP rankings will look like:
1) Ohio State Buckeyes
The committee kept defending champion Florida State in the top spot early last year despite struggling early in the season, and while the Buckeyes haven't looked great, they still have looked like the best team in the country. Their biggest game of the season will be against Michigan State, which could decide which Big Ten team gets a spot in the College Football Playoff. Still, as long as Ohio State keeps winning, they'll be the favorites and keep the top seed this season.
2) Clemson Tigers
Clemson stayed undefeated by beating NC State 56-41 on Saturday, and have flown somewhat under the radar all season playing in the ACC. However, they've shown all of the ingredients you would expect from a championship team. They have an explosive offense led by a superstar QB, and they now have the powerful, aggressive, playmaking defense to complement them.
The Tigers also have the best win the country to this point in a two-point home victory over Notre Dame, and they've handled their business in specatular fashion in every other contest. This team is for real.
3) LSU Tigers
LSU is undefeated, has beaten three teams that were ranked when they played, and have looked impressive every time they've stepped on the field. With games against Alabama, Ole Miss, and Arkansas still on the schedule, LSU could play themselves into one of the top two seeds if they stay undefeated and win the SEC.
4) TCU Horned Frogs
You really could flip flop TCU and Alabama at this point because of TCU's soft schedule, but I don't think the committee would put two teams in from the same conference at this point if a team has one loss like the Tide do. The Horned Frogs narrowly beat Minnesota, Texas Tech, and Kansas State, but the committee might give them a break because of the injuries they suffered on defense.
FIRST TWO OUT
5) Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama does have the loss to Ole Miss, but they have the most impressive trio of wins of anyone in the country by dominating Wisconsin and absolutely dismantling two top-ten teams on the road (Georgia, Texas A&M). Don't be surprised to see them in the top four because of those wins, which the committee put a lot of emphasis on last season. Either way, they'll get their chance to move into the top four with a win over LSU this weekend.
6) Baylor Bears
Now, to Baylor. I firmly believe the Bears are one of the top three teams in the country, but since they only have one victory over a team with a winning record (5-4 Texas Tech) and lost their starting quarterback for the year with a neck injury, I believe the committee will bury them in these initial rankings.
Again, that does NOT mean they think Baylor is a bad team or won't make the Playoff at the end of the season - they just have an extremely weak resume right now. A three-week stretch in November (Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, at TCU) will decide if they make the playoff or not.
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