All of Saturday's games containing true bubble teams have been completed, leaving us with a pretty clear picture of the teams hanging on to a 2015 NCAA Tournament spot and those currently on the outside looking in. Without further ado, here's our last four in and last four out heading into Selection Sunday.
Last 4 In
1. Murray State (27-5)
Great record, horrible resume. They'll likely get in because they're the exact type of mid-major bid with upset potential the committee has put in consistently over the past half-decade. However, they're left to wonder after regular-season losses to formerly bubblicious Xavier by 27 and Horizon League champion Valparaiso by 35 (!), along with the fact they've played just three games against the RPI Top 100 (1-2).
2. Boise State (25-8)
The record is nice and their sweep of San Diego State looks great, but this team has played just nine games against the RPI 100 (4-5) and they have three pretty awful losses on their resume in the 201-300 range. Losing to Wyoming in the Mountain West semifinals is enough to move them out of our "should be in" category and into limbo.
3. Temple (23-10)
Life isn't fair if you're the Temple Owls. After losing to #20 SMU in the American semifinals, the Owls sit firmly on the bubble, despite impressive victories over Kansas and Cincinnati earlier this season. It likely shakes out this way -- Temple's in if SMU strikes down UConn's Cinderella big in the AAC Championship, and they're out if UConn steals a bid.
4. Ole Miss (20-12)
Here's your quintessential bubble team. After losing to South Carolina in the SEC tournament, road victories against the likes of Oregon and Arkansas hold less weight -- especially with losses on their resume to Charleston Southern, TCU, and Western Kentucky. Their road wins and tough SEC schedule should be enough to sneak them in.
First 4 out
1. Miami (21-12)
We just don't see it. Kudos to the Hurricanes for doing their damnedest before falling to Notre Dame in the ACC quarterfinals. However, despite a win over Duke on their resume, there's just not enough oomph there to recommend this bipolar squad -- especially with their 5-8 record against the RPI Top 100.
2. Tulsa (22-10)
A 14-4 record in the American is impressive, but Tulsa's two best wins came in their sweep of Temple. After falling to a suddenly surging UConn team in the AAC semifinals (and after Wyoming stole a spot in the field with a win in the Mountain West finals), we don't see room for a Golden Hurricane team with a meh resume.
3. BYU (25-9)
BYU's claim to fame is a road win over Gonzaga. While that's impressive in its own right, there's not much else to recommend them except wins over Stanford and a down St. Mary's squad. Add in some bad losses, including a sweep by Pepperdine of all program, and the Cougars remain out of the field of 68.
4. UCLA (20-13)
5-10 against the RPI Top 100. 3 losses to sub 100 teams. A sweep over fellow bubble casualty Stanford is enough to get Steve Alford's crew into the NIT, but not into the NCAA Tournament.
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