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UFC 242: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier alternative stats and win probabilities

UFC 242 goes down Saturday… afternoon… with an early PPV start time we haven’t seen since the last promotional visit to Abu Dhabi over nine years ago for UFC 112.

Saturday’s main card is not the world’s most provocative for a PPV, but the main and co-main events are legit. So legit is the Khabib-Poirier main event title scrap that it’s the only bout being analyzed in this piece.

I’m starting to get excited just thinking about it, so let’s jump into the numbers.

Remember, what you’re about to read are not official UFC statistics. They’re alternative stats generated from official statistics designed to (1) give more weight to the recent present than the distant past and (2) not let one huge or horrible performance dominate the data.