The win probabilities for UFC 241’s three qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Diaz-Pettis and Romero-Costa, see Tuesday’s piece.
Nate Diaz (50.2%) over Anthony Pettis
Paulo Costa (50.1%) over Yoel Romero
Cory Sandhagen (60.2%) over Raphael Assuncao
The Diaz-Pettis and Costa-Romero matchups came out extremely close. Since random numbers are involved in the win probability estimations, each fighter was predicted the winner at some point using different seed values.