UFC 226: Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier win probabilities and betting picks

The win probabilities for UFC 226’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Miocic-Cormier, Ngannou-Lewis, Pettis-Chiesa, and the unfortunately scratched Holloway-Ortega fight, see Tuesday’s piece.

Miocic isn’t an official pick since the model doesn’t predict heavyweight fights. He was coded as a light heavyweight for fun, coming out with a slight edge in the champ-vs-champ superfight.

The model uses random numbers in its routine and the results are usually relatively stable if I…