The 2024 Postmortem series is officially done and we can begin looking into the 2024 team! Rejoice! The best way to project 2025 success is by looking at the remains of the 2024 team and figuring out how much production returns on the offensive and defensive sides.
The gentleman who created both Rock M Nation and the SP+ metric system, Bill Connelly, has a measurement called “returning production”, a metric that attempts to quantify the value of production coming back, rather than the value of individuals coming back. His pieces are paywalled, but to me, it’s worth checking out every year as high returning production (roughly 80%) tends to lead to a 5-6 point jump in SP+.