NFL Draft Day Predictor 2024: Forecasting Round 1, QB picks

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Let's predict the 2024 NFL draft, probabilistically. That's the job of ESPN's Draft Day Predictor, our publicly available tool that uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to forecast pick probabilities for prospects in the upcoming draft. In other words, we can get a look at the range of selection outcomes for the best players and the chance they will be available at specific slots.

With two days remaining before the Bears presumably select USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick, let's break down some key questions about the draft using the Draft Day Predictor. We'll look at who will go No. 2 overall, which wide…