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An Ole Miss upset over Mississippi State is a statistical long shot

A lot’s happened since last year’s 31-28 Ole Miss upset in Starkville. That win was apparently enough for the Ole Miss athletic department to make a long-term investment in then-interim coach Matt Luke. At the same time, Mississippi State lost Dan Mullen to Florida, only to pluck rising offensive star Joe Moorhead from Penn State. Those two hires were probably enough to tell you who’d be favored heading into this year’s game.

The Bulldogs haven’t reached the ceiling promised by their preseason hype, but they’re still a damn strong 7-4 team. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is riding a four game losing streak after suffering an embarrassment in Nashville that should have never gone to overtime.