You don't need a complex statistical model to tell you Teddy Bridgewater's comeback-flattening fumble Thursday night was among the most crucial plays of the game. But it may surprise you to know the gut punch wasn't the biggest haymaker.
Rather, it came after another play (we'll get to which one, but your guess is probably a good one) had already hobbled the Vikings' chances.
According to pro-football-reference's win probability model, which tracks how much a given play swings the outcome of a game, the strip sack on the final drive dropped Minnesota's chances of winning from 25 percent to essentially zero (a successful Arizona kneeldown on the next snap finished the job).