Channeling my inner Dennis Green: "They are who we thought they were!" Pains me to say it and I know many reading this will not enjoy what I am about to say, but, Michigan football is SOFT. This football team is the kid that beats up folks in middle school then wimpers in the corner when they get to high school and there are finally kids bigger than him. The have beaten the Northwestern's, Indiana's and Purdue's of the world but get manhandled by real Big Ten tough guys.
What makes me come to this conclusion? Matchups vs. Tough Teams in the Big Ten.
Where I stand, Michigan has lost 15, yes FIFTEEN, straight games against the Big Ten teams I consider to be 'tough': OSU, MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State. Starting with next weeks game, we can add Nebraska to the list of tough Big Ten teams that we face.
What will Michigan's record be in it's final 3 games? Vote Now!
2011
Iowa - Loss
MSU - Loss
2010
OSU - Loss
Wisconsin - Epic blowout loss
PSU - Loss
Iowa - Loss
MSU - Loss
2009
OSU - Loss
Wisconsin - Loss
PSU - Epic blowout loss
Iowa - Loss
MSU - Loss
2008
OSU - Loss
MSU - Loss
PSU - Epic 2nd half blowout loss
Wisconsin - WIN!!!
You have to go back to September 2008 against a Wisconsin team that finished the year 7-6 to find the last Michigan victory against a Big Ten team with a pulse. They are who we thought they were: Average and finesse.
Has this program made any progrees since 2006? When looking at Michigan's 7-5 regular season in 2010, was it really any better than the 5-7 2009 campaign? And, is this season any better if they beat Illinois but finish with losses to Nebraska and OSU, ending at 8-4?
Let's look at the extra 2 wins in 2010 vs. 2009: Illinois and Purdue. Any Michigan fan would tell you that both games could have easily been losses, especially Illinois. So, from my perspective, there was no improvement in the 2010 team, especially given that they were outscored 137-49 in the final three games of the year.
Fast forward to this season and we likely end 8-4. While there is no question the defense has vastly improved, has it been offset by a regressing offense with a QB in Denard Robinson that has been completely dismantled by any team that places an emphasis on defense? For all the folks that have gotten drunk on the Brady Hoke kool-aid (myself included), would an 8-4 record mean anything knowing that a win vs. Northwestern was the only difference in the year over year records (subbing out a 2010 PSU loss)? If Michigan had faced the same schedule in 2011 as they had in 2010, they undoubtedly would have lost to PSU, leaving a 7-5 record as the probable outcome.
So, to dig deeper into the wound, I must say that this weeks game vs. Illinois tells us nothing about this team. If we beat Illinois 35-14, it doesn't matter. The only thing that matters to gauge whether Brady Hoke has improved this 2011 Michigan football team is to win 1 vs. Nebraska and OSU and to be in the game in the final minutes in both contests. A sloppy, mistake filled loss in either contest will signal a lack of progression in this program and I will be VERY down on the outlook of the 2012 team facing a murderers row schedule. I mean, honestly, if Michigan doesn't beat OSU this year, when will we ever beat 'em?
Now, on to recruiting.
The recent commitment of Ann Arbor Pioneer RB Drake Johnson does not mean anything regarding the recruitment of OH 4-star RB Bri'onte Dunn. With recruiting being so focused on a small group of recruits, I have been able to gather as much info on Dunn as possible in the past few weeks. From everything I have been told, I would be very surprised if Dunn did not end up a member of the 2012 Michigan recruiting class. Yesterday struck a new blow to OSU;s chances when they self imposed a 5 scholarship reduction eahc year for the next 3 years, which happen to be Bri'onte's first (and maybe only) three he will spend on a college campus.
The Michigan coaches aren't counting Dunn as a part of this class yet, but they have decided that the RB options are Dunn or bust going forward, signaling that they are confident where they stand with the current Buckeye commitment.
Stefon Diggs: It is very amusing to see so many other recruiting sites are back on the Stefon Diggs to Michigan train. As I have been saying since summer, Diggs has been leaning to Michigan ever since friend CB Blake Countess arrived on campus this summer and raved about the Michigan experience. I cannot tell you how many folks in my weekly chats and via twitter/email would tell me that I was dead wrong on Diggs and he didn't have any interest in Michigan just because that is what they read in articles of uninformed writers who take a quick glance at his Scout or ESPN profile and didn't see Michigan listed.
The fact is, Michigan is the one for quite a while that wasn't interested in pursuing Diggs. During his junior year, Stefon was seen as an immature player and a kid that didn't want to work hard to have success. That, plus poor grades, kept the coaches from truly pursuing the 5-star WR.
Nice write up on the situation from Detroit News yesterday
In the last three months, it seems that a light has gone off in Diggs' head. With recent positive reports the staff got from the coaches at Good Counsel (MD) and freshman phenom Countess on Diggs, they have decided to give him a 2nd look . . . and they like the personal growth of the young man. If all continues to go well, Diggs has improved his grades enough to where he is not seen as a non-qualifier candidate and his immaturity and work ethic issues are behind him. With Jordan Payton likely going elsewhere, the full court press is being put on Diggs to be the gem of this 2012 offensive class. A friend of mine who works in recruiting recently told me: "If you guys land Diggs, you might as well slap a #86 on him because he is the rebirth of Mario Manningham." Sounds good to me.
Finally, on O-line recruiting: As of today, I do not see Michigan adding another O-lineman in this class. Things have cooled off with Zach Banner and counting on Josh Garnett to come to AA isn't a great bet. Jordan Diamond may get back into the mix, but as I have said in the past, he is not a Michigan caliber recruit.
Predicted recruiting finish: Dunn, Diggs, CB Yuri Wright and WR Amarah Darboh.
One final note: Don't be shocked if one of those final scholarships is taken by an in-state or MW QB. Michigan has been keeping an eye on a handful of sleeper QB's and as they get more film, there could be a surprise off/commitment from one of the below QB's.
* Detroit QB Brian Blackburn (Toledo commit)
* Rochester Hills QB Tony Annese (CMU commit)
* Detroit QB Brian CLeary
* OH QB Patrick Boyle
* OH QB Cole French
* OH (St. Ignatiius) QB Eric Williams
On to Illinois . . .
For those of you who followed by gambling predictions, my 6-0 hot start mirrored Michigan's early win streak an fizzled the same day as Michigan's loss to MSU. I saw that
as an omen and stopped betting the last 3 weeks. Now that Michigan lost last week my superstitions are over and I am back on the wagon of degenerate gambling. So, my LOCK of the week this week is . . . .
Michigan.
That's right. Michigan -1 is the best bet on the board this week. After getting a practice update yesterday, I am very confident that this team will impose it's will on the Illini, go ahead early and win 31-17.
What's the game plan?
On offense, look for a heavy dose of the running game, screen passes and curls/slants from the receivers.
On defense, we are going to see more of the same: Solid tackling, occasional blitzing and great stops on third and short.
As far as players are concerned....
Against Iowa, QB Denard Robinson was clearly still struggling to run at top speed after suffering a deep thigh bruise against Purdue. I wouldn't expect to see #16 on a ton of designed runs tomorrow as the coaches know having him as a healthy running threat in the final two games in paramount. One area that was worked on this week in practice extensively was Denard recognizing running lanes when he drops back to pass. The staff had him working repeatedly this week on making a short read, long read then 'running where they ain't". I would expect the bulk of Denard's running attempts to come via passing scrambles where he can slide or step out of bounds, avoiding unnecessary contact.
On D: All signs point to Thomas Gordon starting at safety ahead of last weeks started Troy Woolfolk. Freshman LB's Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan will start, but will be rotated in and out so that they both aren't on the field for long periods of time together. JT Floyd will start at CB, but Courtney Avery is right on his heels as the #2 CB and will spell JT for stretches, giving Michigan a true freshman and true sophomore on the field for the Wolverines . . . giving us a glimpse into a promising future in the secondary.
That's right, 31-17 Michigan. Go Blue.
More awesome Michigan football reads:
The Least Epic Showdown of All-Time feat. New Mexico vs. UNLV
Chat Transcript - Michigan football insider chat with Ace Williams
On Denard Robinson and Arm-Chair Quarterbacks
Bacon's Book, Lloyd Carr and Michigan Men
5 Michigan football players that are likely not to return in 2012
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