10 Early Spreads for CFB Week 1 2012 - Repeating the Mistakes of 2011

From Just Cover Blog, your ridiculously early Week 1 college football lines:

Michigan +14 vs Alabama,  Saturday Night, 9/1

South Carolina -10 at Vanderbilt, Thursday Night, 8/30

Boise State+6.5 at Michigan State, Friday Night, 8/31

NC State +6.5 vs Tennessee, Friday Night, 8/31

Marshall +21.5 at West Virginia, Saturday, 9/1

Auburn +5 at Clemson, Saturday, 9/1

Southern Miss +13 at Nebraska, Saturday, 9/1

Navy +13.5 vs Notre Dame (Dublin), Saturday, 9/1

Kentucky +10 at Louisville, Sunday, 9/2

Georgia Tech +9 at Virginia Tech, Monday Night, 9/3

At first glance, I'm appalled that at this point in Brady Hoke's Michigan Reclamation project we're still a 2 TD underdog to Alabama.  On second glance that seems about right.  (rage subsiding).  First game lines have to be the most erratic and potentially error ridden of any lines Vegas produces throughout the year.  They simply don't have enough data to accurately assess a team's strength.  Fortunately for them, they rely on you and I to be falsely secure in our ability to access a team's strength with no data.  With our hubris securely in place, Vegas sets a line that will give them ~50% of total money wagered in each side.  I will now completely forget this piece of logic and tell you how we can make money in week one.  For insight into these games, let's take a look at some trends from week 1 2011.

131 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels +35

132 Wisconsin Badgers -35

Over/Under 55.5

Result: Wisco 51, UNLV 17 - Wisco cover, Over

133 Mississippi State Bulldogs -27.5

134 Memphis Tigers +27.5

Over/Under 49

Result: Miss. St. 59, Memphis 14 - MSU Cover, OVER

145 TCU Horned Frogs -6

146 Baylor Bears +6

Over/Under 56

Result: Baylor 50, TCU 48 - Baylor Cover, OVER

149 Utah State Aggies +22

150 Auburn Tigers -22

Over/Under 55.5

Result: Auburn 42, Utah St. 38, Utah St. Cover, OVER

151 Alabama Crimson Tide

152 Kent State - 37

Over/Under 45.5

Result: Alabama 48, Kent State 7 - Alabama Cover, OVER

199 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +29

200 Florida State Seminoles -29

Over/Under 53

Result: Florida State 34, UL - Monroe 0 - Florida State Cover, UNDER

Based on this extremely small sample size that I cherry-picked, it seems like offenses have an easier go of it than the defenses in the season's first game.  If you absolutely have to bet, ie your girlfriend is being held by ransom demanding Ninjas or the hospital has agreed to move you up the transplant list if you get 8/10 games right ATS in week one, the overs look like the way to go.  Don't blame me when you're in Chinatown trying to discern if the replacement kidney you just bought came from a human or a pig.







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