The Only Colors · Jul 8, 2015
Game Theory: Going for Two with the Lead
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY SportsTwo years ago, I wrote an article on when to go for two when trailing. There's a lot of math involved there (and this one will have a bit too), but a brief summary on late-game strategy:
If you need a two-point conversion, it's often best to do it early - sometimes there are alternate paths to success if the two-point try fails early, but postponing the conversion puts all your eggs in one basket.
If down 8, 11, 15, 18, 19, 22, 23, or 24 before the touchdown, you should always go for two.
If down 6, 9, 13, or 20, you should always kick.