Some call it a fade, others a jump ball or “fifty-fifty” but the fallacy is that it’s much less than a fifty-fifty throw. Collecting the empirical data is difficult because of now many NCAA and NFL teams there are, and how many trips to the end zone they have. However, cornerbacks have gotten extremely adept at leveraging receivers out of bounds and getting their arms in between the receivers to knock the ball out of their hands. That said, the red zone fade isn’t the best choice, especially not on 3rd down, for the offensive coordinators.
The data
Back in 2013, Jason Lisk and Michael Shamburger wrote the piece “Fade Into the Red Zone: A Look at Hot and Cold NFL Pass Plays Near the Goal Line.