There's always a certain amount of gambling involved when building a team. Research is done, film is watched, rewatched and then re-rewatched, teams do everything they can possibly do to make sure they get that sure thing.
But in the end, all it amounts to is a slightly higher chance of making a good bet.
Now I am not a gambling man myself, but I know many people who are and a lot of them take what the oddsmakers say very seriously, as they could hold the key to a big payday if they make the right bet.