How Often Do Unbalanced Teams Make A Deep Tournament Run?

I’m just going to say right away that if you ever read an article by someone saying that claims to know exactly what teams are going to the Final Four, it was written by a crazy person and you should make like the phoenix in Kanye West’s short film Runaway and run away as fast as you can. Single elimination tournaments with 68 participants are no way to determine who the best team is because there is a massive amount of luck involved in each individual game. As such, a team’s success should never be bound to the tournament round that they make, unless you would like to seriously argue that the 2011 VCU squad was truly one of the 4 best teams in the country even though they lost to Georgia State, Northeastern, South Florida, and James Madison that year.