The basics of preseason prognostication is pretty simple. You look at a team’s returning production, the talent they lost and the talent they added, maybe look at how lucky or unlucky they were last season, and presto! You make a pick.
The problem with this method right now is that the last two seasons are of dubious predictive value. 2020 was almost complete garbage, as teams fielded rotating lineups of whoever was available in front of empty stadiums. 2021 promised some degree of normality, but it was only a normal year in comparison to the ad hoc nature of 2020.