If you evaluate draft prospects long enough, you’re going to have swings and misses along the way.
I regret to inform you up front that Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert was one of my Vlad Guerrero-level swings, with far less positive impact. Herbert’s traits were obvious, but as he was in an offense that I thought should have been locked in a shed and set on fire, it was tough to tell how those traits would transfer to the NFL. When you see a 6’6, 236-pound rocket-armed guy missing screen passes wildly, and making the most of his deep-ball opportunities when he had them (which wasn’t nearly enough), you can be distracted when you play too much attention to the scheme, and not enough to isolating the player regardless of his environment.