As written about last week, Chargers at Jaguars last week was one of the biggest playoff swing games of the season. With a win, the Chargers would've risen to a playoff probability of over 90+%. Unfortunately, disaster struck in Jacksonville with a 35-6 loss for the Bolts.
Most simulations prior to the game had the Chargers around a 60% probability to make the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs with a loss to the Jaguars. Per The Athletic's Upshot model, that is indeed what happened. The Chargers' playoff probability dropped to 64% as they sit in the AFC's sixth seed.