Nick Bosa is the reigning NFL sack leader and Defensive Player of the Year, but it's Myles Garrett whom we forecast to record the most sacks in 2023.
For the third year in a row we're using a statistical model to predict the number of sacks the league's best pass-rushers will record, based on past performance and their 2023 situation. We're using the same model as last year (with minor tweaks), including the following inputs:
Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons
Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
How often a player's defensive coordinator/head coach has blitzed in the past
How often opposing quarterbacks on each player's upcoming schedule get sacked
A player's team's win total, which matters because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more
How often a player rushes from edge as opposed to the interior
To be included, players have to be defensive linemen or linebackers.