The NBA Draft, first and foremost, is about potential. The lottery picks especially are about attempting to identify what a player could do for the next 10 years, not what they’ve accomplished already.
That’s why 19-year-olds who had anywhere from average to productive single seasons in college, or didn’t even play in college, find themselves new-found millionaires and pieces a franchise is willing to build around. Jaren Jackson Jr. averaged 10.9 points and 5.8 rebounds in 21 minutes per game at Michigan State and was taken with the fourth overall pick because of his potential.
But aside from a few special exceptions whose talent and ability would allow them to succeed in any situation, success in the league comes down to being placed in an environment that allows the potential of a players’ skills to flourish.