When evaluating any team's projected record, what you can control will always come first. A balanced offense and a stout defense will always lay the groundwork for what should be a successful hour of football. Yet, when you think of the little margins that the game will throw at you, certain things gain a lot more valuable light. If you are a team like Kansas, which has a poor recent history of turning those tight margins into wins. The things you can't control certainly hold much more value
One of the easiest things to point your fingers at is your opponent.