So, the Kansas City Royals are expected to finish fourth in the American League Central…again. Maybe even last. In the last few seasons, the Royals have been a sort of Bizarro-Notre Dame football team: they always exceed expectations, at least according to PECOTA projections.
PECOTA, which uses a variety of mathematical equations to determine how many wins a team should have, has predicted Kansas City will manage just 76 wins in the upcoming season – worst in the Central and second worst in the American League.
But here’s how much one should trust PECOTA: last year, the program said the Royals would win just 72 games.