With only four more regular-season games left to play, the MVP race has now turned into a two-man race, as other quarterbacks ultimately put themselves out of contention in Week 13. So, how does the race between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers shake out?
Before we get to the rankings, here is a short overview of the methodology:
- We trained a model to predict the winner of the MVP award at the conclusion of the regular season. The model is based on three regular-season parameters:
- The number of wins (and how that ranks across the league)
- Rank in the division
- Expected points added per play (and how that ranks across the league)
- Since the model works with regular-season stats in hindsight, we need to simulate the remaining games of the season in order to feed the model.