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Why are the 2-4 Jaguars favored against the 5-1 Giants?

are favored by three points this weekend against the New York Giants (+3). (You can find odds and more at DraftKings Sportsbook.)

In addition, Football Outsiders’ projected line for the game is Jaguars -4.3, and ESPN’s model implies the spread should be closer to a full touchdown.

The Jaguars have a 72.5% chance to win against the Giants according to ESPN’s matchup predictor.

I mean I know the analytics favor the Jags, but idk how to make that make sense.— Jordan de Lugo (@jordandelugo) October 18, 2022

The 2-4 Jaguars are coming off three consecutive loses, most recently to woeful division rivals Houston and Indianapolis.